“Hispanics on Donald Trump; 84% say NO!”
I will win the Hispanic vote…Hispanics love me…Recent poll in Nevada has me way ahead with the Hispanic vote;” so said“Presidential candidate” Donald Trump to a gaggle of reporters and their television cameras in Laredo, Texas, when he went there last week to “look over the border” in the face of what he called a “dangerous situation.”
Trump does not allow anyone to disagree with him or to even ask questions about his exclamations. He dismissed longtime reporter Jose Diaz Balart of NBC-owned Telemundo television basically telling him to shut up. He’s even prohibited anyone from Iowa’s largest and most respected newspaper, the Des Moines Register, from attending his canned Hillary-like appearance in Iowa.
Well, I’m going to challenge Mr. Trump on what he said in Laredo. He is in no position to tell me to shut up. I am right and he is wrong.
Donald Trump will not and cannot win the Hispanic vote in Nevada or nationally. The Washington Post/ABC News Poll of July 16-19 produced the clearest and most concrete indication yet that Trump is full of hyperbole without a fact of any sort to back him up on Hispanic votes.
The Poll of Hispanics: 84 percent said they would definitely not vote for Donald Trump. Only 7 percent said they would definitely vote for him while 6 percent said they would “consider” voting for him. The bottom line – 8.4 of every ten Hispanics said they would never vote for Trump. Strike one.
The Nevada Poll was done by a non-partisan firm, Gravis Marketing of Florida. In 2013, it won an award from the American Association of Political Consultants. This poll won’t win it any awards.
This is its statement in the PR Newswire regarding the poll it conducted among the 1276 people in Nevada of which only 16 percent said they were Hispanic:
“With polled Hispanics, Presidential Candidate Trump received 31.4%, higher than his over-all performance of 27.7%. The only other Presidential Candidate to receive double digit support is (Wisconsin Governor) Scott Walker with 11.4%.”
Are these numbers real or even possible?
Let’s look at the Hispanics in this poll. When asked about Hispanic Republicans in Nevada, Jon Ralston, the state’s premiere political reporter answered — 20%. Was that percentage used by Gravis Marketing in selecting its poll respondents? We don’t know because Gravis didn’t tell us. Gravis itemized a “race” section in its demographic statement. It asked this question: “What race do you identify yourself as?” The responses: White 64%, Hispanic 16%, African American 8%, Asian 3% and other 2%. The problem with the question is that “Hispanic” is not a race. Strike two.
So, from what polling segment did the 16% that identified their “race” as Hispanic come from that responded about Trump? From the 623 Republicans, or 416 Democrats or the 217 people who said they would not vote in the “primary” but would vote in the general election? We don’t know because Gravis doesn’t tell us. Nor does Gravis explain why Hispanics are a “race” when they are not.
Can we believe that Trump actually received support from 31.4 percent of Hispanics in Nevada? No. Let’s start with the numbers. Gravis, where did those Hispanics come from? The total of 1276 people surveyed, or just the 623 self-identified Republicans? As we are talking primary/caucus potential participants only the 623 Republicans could possibly be used. If Ralston is correct with his 20% of Nevada Hispanics being Republican, a maximum of 124 Hispanic Republicans were polled. If Donald Trump received 31.4 percent of them that means 39 folks expressed support for Trump. But what if it was from a base number of less than 124, say half that – 19 would be the 31.4%. With numbers that small, the margin of error would be double what Gravis stipulated (5%) thus making the numbers 17 to 35 possible Hispanics that said they supported Donald Trump for President.
Based on the two polls cited here (WAPO/ABC and Gravis) believing Donald Trump that he is winning or will win the Hispanic vote is vacuous at best, baloney at worst; the claim is made on tiny numbers in a poll conducted by people that don’t know that “HISPANICS” aren’t a “race.” Strike three, you’re out!
Donald Trump says he will win the Hispanic vote. In the Washington Post/ABC poll, a gigantic 84 percent cohort of Hispanics say they will never vote for Donald Trump. The question is, not whether they will or will not vote for Donald Trump, the real question is will they ever get the chance? It is July, 2015; the election is 16 months from now in November, 2016. Will Trump’s campaign survive long enough to be on the General Election ballot?
Contreras formerly was syndicated by Creators Syndicate and the New American News Service of the New York Times Syndicate